With Amal and Hizballah reaffirming their presence in their districts and Sulayman Franjiyah reconsolidating his fiefdom in Zgharta, the biggest losers in these elections have been the Free Patriotic Movement. Though they still represent a considerable chunk of the Christians, the shock of the decline since 2005 against all expectations and predictions is still reverberating.
Critiques of “what went wrong” abound, and Khalid Saghiyah rises to the occassion again with a sharp one. He criticizes ongoing attempts to justify the electoral loss, including the appeal to the popular vote, stressing instead the need for introspection on several levels: the sectarian discourse, the divisive electoral law, and the “glorious day” (May 7th, 2008).
But he also nails down other blunders:
- Hizballah’s resignation when it comes to its Sunni allies, who have been left to their own devices. Hizballah “bet instead on the Christian horse” leaving the Sunnis feeling besieged.
- The inability to transform the memorandum of understanding from an “alliance” into an “understanding” over common political and national grounds, leaving a glaring gap between “the public” of Hizballah and that of the Free Patriotic Movement.
- The “anthem against corruption” remained sensational and vague. He points out that while Aoun’s discourse on corruption might “tickle the feelings” of the middle class, it is out of tune with the popular classes that are dependent on the channels of corruption and clientalism. I think this observation can also be used to critique the approach of idealist, typically middle class alternatives for governance — such as secularization, centralization, etc — which ignore the realities on the ground, be those engendered by choice or lack of it.
- The opposition’s inability to concretize its slogan of “building the strong, capable, and just state.” In fact, when it came to ministerial appointments, the selection of electoral candidates, and the paucity of their political programs, the opposition repeated the mistakes of the governmental majority.
B-side Beirut 
June 11, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Khaled is one of the best critical minds in lebanese journalism, and his analysis of the opposition’s loss in the recent elections is brilliant and up to the point.
too bad he isn’t writing daily anymore.
June 13, 2009 at 4:30 pm
I agree with Khaled’s summarised points.
Although I think we’re expecting too much from the FPM.
After all, what does the FPM’s opposition offer as a viable alternative? The continuation of the status quo that has prevailed since independence?
Perhaps the Lebanese were daunted by the radical changes proposed by the FPM.
If the FPM were serious about the corruption theme, it needed to back it up with figures. Show the people how many billions corruption is costing our economy each year.
There is a sizable Lebanese public that is frustrated at such corruption, hence the thousands that scramble for foreign visas each year, or as the Batrak refers to it, the “braindrain”. There was a market the FPM failed to tap into through poor marketing.
M14’s fear tactic defeated FPM’s reform strategy. Solid marketing pays off.
June 13, 2009 at 4:45 pm
You are absolutely right about the figures. Figures are also missing from their electoral program. Where will the money – for arming the army and the social programs, for example – come from? And how will it not end up in the same vicious circle of debt created by the Hariri economics that FPM never tires of criticizing?
I think FPM’s best bet now is to show that their political program is not just an electoral stunt – if indeed it is not. As the case of Ziad Baroud showed, hard work is also a solid form of marketing.
June 15, 2009 at 12:44 pm
we are wrong if we are expecting the FPM to offer a new economic vision. They belong to the same liberal school of economy as that of Hariri et co..
The political divisions in lebanon put the FPM in the opposition, if Hariri offered them what they asked for when they were negotiating the shares of each party in the government, they would have swallowed all this corruption rhetoric, like they swallowed it in 2005 elections and took el Murr on their list.